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Checklist for Picking Long Shot Winners, a Simple
Horse Racing System
By [http://ezinearticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson]Bill
Peterson
There is no substitute for good in depth handicapping, but if you want a
simple horse racing system that will help you to pick some long shot
winners, I highly recommend that you use a method like the following
one. Using a system to pick winners just makes sense, even if it is a
simple system. Like the old saying goes, "Those who fail to plan, plan
to fail." So if you are going to a track or OTB, and would like to try
to find a good long shot bet, try this...
Use a checklist to see if a horse that is going off at long odds has a
chance of winning. The following odds will let you know if it is a long
shot.
field size odds
5 horses 6-1 or more
6 horses 8-1 or more
7-9 horses 12-1 or more
10 or more 15-1 or more
The next step is to figure out if the favorite can be beaten, so answer
these simple questions.
A few simple ways to decide if the favorite is a legitimate favorite
A. does it have faster speed ratings at today's surface and distance
than any other horse in the race and
B. has it raced within the last 40 days?
If the answer is yes to these two questions, don't bet against it.
If the answer to the above questions is "no", then you might have a
false favorite and it becomes reasonable to look for a long shot winner.
See if any horse that is going off at the above odds qualifies using
this simple checklist...
1. Has the horse won at this distance?
2. Has the horse won at this level (same class)?
3. Has the horse raced within the last 40 days?
4. If the horse hasn't raced in the last 40 days, has it ever won off a
layoff that is as long as today's layoff?
5. Is the horse picked by at least one public handicapper to finish in
the top three finishers?
6. Is the horse being ridden by a better jockey today than in its last
race?
If you can find a horse that you can answer yes to at least three of any
of the above questions for, then you may have a legitimate long shot
bet. But be careful and remember, it is a long shot for a good reason
and they don't win very often, but when they do, the payoffs can be
substantial.
If you like horse racing systems you can compare them at [http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html
]the handicapping store where you'll find simple systems and complex
systems as well.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a
handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing
for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not
going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider
handicaps just go to [http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html ]True
handicapping and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper.
He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse
Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to
[http://williewins.homestead.com ]Bill's handicapping.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Bill_Peterson http://EzineArticles.com/?Checklist-for-Picking-Long-Shot-Winners,-a-Simple-Horse-Racing-System&id=1137906 |
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